The National Hurricane Center is saying this afternoon that there is a “100% chance” of tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches may be needed soon because of the formation of such a storm. Beyond this immediate threat, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is also tracking two other areas that could blossom into tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin over the next 7 days.

The storm most likely to develop is located in the central Atlantic. According to the NHC, a low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is becoming better defined and the associated showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization. If these trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and the NHC says that Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions of that region tonight or early Saturday.

The next tropical storm to be named in the Atlantic basin would be called Beryl.

The other two areas of concern the NHC are tracking are located near the Yucatan Peninsula and the far eastern Atlantic.  An area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea associated with a tropical wave continues to produce widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. The NHC says that development of this disturbance is not expected today while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast move westward over the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge over the Bay of Campeche late Saturday or early Sunday, at which point the NHC says some development will be possible. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the tropical wave will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through the weekend.  Meanwhile, a  tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical Atlantic. For both of these areas of concern, the NHC says there is only a 30% chance that either will develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 7 days.