The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that there’s a 90% chance that a disturbance they’ve been tracking in recent days will become a tropical cyclone within the next few days. The area of concern is located in the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin. While the Atlantic and Central Pacific Hurricane Basin seasons don’t begin until June 1, the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin’s Season started on May 15.

The National Hurricane Center monitors and forecasts conditions for both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basins while the Central Pacific Hurricane Center does the same for the Central Pacific.

According to the National Hurricane Center, showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form near the middle portion of the week while the low moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.

Right now, the National Hurricane Center believes there’s a 70% chance that tropical cyclone formation will occur here within the next 48 hours; those odds grow to a very high 90% over the next seven days.

If this system were to become a named tropical storm, it would be called Alvin, the first name on the list of names to use for Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones.