Major Hurricane Erin, which became a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, isn’t forecast to make landfall on the U.S. East Coast at this time –but it is expected to lash the coast with a variety of hazards including rip currents, storm surge flooding, beach erosion, and high winds.
As of the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, Erin was located about 145 miles north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico and about 395 miles east of Grand Turk Island. The minimum central pressure of the storm is at 937 mb or 27.67″.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36-48 hours in the Turks and Caicos Islands.
“Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin,” warns the National Hurricane Center (NHC.)
Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph. This motion is expected to continue through Sunday with a decrease in forward speed. A turn more northward is expected to occur on Monday into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to begin moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Sunday night and Monday.
NOAA Hurricane Hunter and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data indicates that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph with higher gusts. This makes Erin a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next day or two due to inner-core structural changes with Erin.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles. As the storm moves north, this wind field is expected to expand and the hurricane is expected to become larger than it is today.
In the short term, the outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2-4″ with isolated totals of 8″ inches are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.
Tropical storm force winds are possible within the watch area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning late Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may also occur over the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Sunday.
Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend.
These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
While the east coast of the U.S. should dodge the worst of the storm, the NHC is advising interests in Bermuda to pay close attention because they may not be as lucky. “There is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high surf by the middle part of next week,” the NHC warns Bermuda.
