Unfortunately for residents of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coastline that have seen the impacts of several tropical cyclones during the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, it is likely yet another major hurricane will take shape in the Gulf of Mexico and it’s possible yet another catastrophic U.S. landfall is possible too.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there’s a 70% chance that a tropical cyclone will take shape in the Caribbean Sea over the next 48 hours; those odds increase to 90% over the next 7 days. Showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea have become
more organized in associated with a broad area of low pressure. According to the NHC, environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next week and eventually end up in the Gulf of Mexico. Global computer forecast guidance, such as the American GFS and European ECMWF, are both very bullish, calling for significant intensification over time into a major hurricane. A major hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds greater than 110 mph. Hurricanes are considered “major” at this threshold because winds that strong can create devastating damage: well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends while many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads.
While global computer forecast models do bring the storm to the coast of Florida by the middle to later part of next week, it is far too soon to say with any certainty if the system will get there. However, residents of the entire Gulf Coast are urged to follow the forecast and be prepared in the event another storm threatens the coast next week.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season continues through to the end of November.
