Meteorologists with Colorado State University (CSU) and their Tropical Weather Project have updated their seasonal outlook for this Atlantic Hurricane Season, dropping the number of expected storms but keeping the forecast as an above-normal season.
“We have reduced our forecast a bit and now call for a slightly above-normal season: 16 named storms (including the three storms that have already formed), 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The primary reason for the reduction is due to strong observed vertical wind shear in the Caribbean in June and forecast continued above-normal shear in the Caribbean in July,” wrote Phil Klotzbach and Michael Bell, the lead scientists on the project.
The CSU team adds, “However, we also anticipate the tropical Pacific to be characterized by ENSO neutral conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
Weatherboy is among 6 entities that support the research CSU does; some of the others include the Insurance Information Institute, Ironshore, Gallagher Re, and Commodity Weather Group.
The full report can be viewed here.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued their latest Tropical Outlook for the week this morning, saying they expect no tropical cyclone formation anywhere in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin for at least the next 7 days.
Atlantic Hurricane Season began on June 1 and ends on November 30. The system has produced three named tropical storms, two of which have created catastrophic flood problems for the U.S.: Barry and Chantal.
