Hurricane Erin continues to grow in size and move away from the U.S. East Coast; while a direct hit is not expected at all, the outer fringes of the large and powerful storm are expected to continue to impact portions of the coast. After impacting North Carolina yesterday into today, it is now New Jersey and New York’s turn to bear the brunt of Erin’s fringes as it moves out to sea.
Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected for Cape May County in New Jersey and Sussex County in Delaware; elsewhere, moderate flooding is expected up the entire Jersey shore and coastline, with minor flooding expected on the south shore of Long Island in New York. Marine hazards will climb to “significant” this evening, with life-threatening “extreme” conditions just off the coast of the Jersey Shore and along the central and eastern off-shore waters of Long Island.
Prolonged and strengthening northeast winds will result in periods of coastal flooding through the end of this week. Water will slowly pile up as onshore flow continues through this evening. Swells from Hurricane Erin will also enhance the threat for tidal flooding and push of water onshore, especially this evening when the most significant and widespread coastal flooding impacts are expected.
A High Surf Advisory and High Risk for Rip Currents are in effect for all Atlantic Ocean Beaches through Friday as swell from Hurricane Erin in bringing life-threatening surf and rip currents.
With large and long period waves from Hurricane Erin approaching the beach nearly head on, surf heights during the day today will likely reach 9 to 13 feet for Brooklyn and southern Queens and 12 to 16 for southern Nassau and southern Suffolk. Surf heights likely peak overnight tonight and could be a foot or two higher than earlier in the day. Surf remains elevated Friday morning but by the afternoon should drop to 5-9 for western beaches and 8-12 for eastern beaches.
The threat for beach flooding, beach erosion and escarpment and areas of dune erosion will increase with successive high tides through tonight. Widespread areas of dune erosion are likely with localized over-washes during this evening and Friday morning high tides. This high surf will be combined with elevated water levels as we approach a new moon.
Widespread moderate coastal flooding is expected for southern Queens, southern Nassau, and southwestern Suffolk counties. For eastern Long Island, moderate flooding will likely be more localized, with north facing exposed shoreline areas along the southern and eastern bays being the most susceptible due to to enhanced wave action; this includes Orient Point.
Elsewhere, minor coastal flooding is expected with this evening`s high tide cycle for southern Brooklyn, the New York Harbor, and much of the Connecticut & New York coastlines along the Long Island Sound. Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued in these areas by the local National Weather Service office.
The National Weather Service warns, “A Coastal Flood Warning means that moderate or major tidal flooding is occurring or imminent. Be prepared for rising water levels and take appropriate action to protect life and property. Follow the recommendations of local emergency management officials.” They add, “Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to costly repairs. “
