The National Hurricane Center believes there is a good chance –60%– that a tropical cyclone will form east of central America in the coming days. The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through the end of the month and tropical cyclones sometimes do form this late in the season.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to gradually form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by late this week while the low drifts northward or northeastward.
Computer forecast guidance used by meteorologists is split in how the system will evolve and where it’ll go over time; while some guidance suggests no additional development, others forecast a system going west into Central America while others forecast the system eventually moving north and east towards Jamaica and Haiti.
If development were to occur, it would be slow. Visit our Tropical Weather Page here for further information about this system and a review of all tropical cyclones that were near US waters for the 2016 season: https://weatherboy.com/hurricanes-tropical-weather/