The National Hurricane Center has increased their odds that a disturbance moving across the Atlantic will develop into a tropical cyclone over the coming days; meanwhile they say it is unlikely a second disturbance near Florida will become one.

A weak area of low pressure located near the central and northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity. This system is expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center says that strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of the low, however the combination of the disturbance and the broader remnant boundary is still expected to produce heavy rainfall and possible flooding across portions of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend. For now, the National Hurricane Center says there’s only a 10% chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

The system with better odds of developing  has just emerged off the coast of Africa. This tropical wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that. According to the National Hurricane Center, environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of next week. The National Hurricane Center has boosted odds that formation will occur here from 20% up to 50% over the next 7 days.

Elsewhere there’s no tropical cyclone development expected anywhere in the Atlantic Hurricane basin over the next 7 days. The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through the end of November.