The National Hurricane Center is tracking a potentially troublesome trio of disturbances that could develop into tropical or subtropical cyclones over time; one of them is likely to become a system in the Gulf of Mexico over the next week.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) this morning, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean,” the NHC warns. The NHC says there’s a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days.
Global computer forecast guidance is coming into better alignment around the idea of this disturbance moving into the Gulf of Mexico over the next week, eventually becoming a possible tropical storm or worse. It is too soon to say with certainty if that will happen, but residents along the U.S. Gulf Coast are reminded that hurricane season extends through to the end of the month.
The NHC is also monitoring the northeastern Caribbean Sea and the Greater Antilles. According to the NHC, surface observations and satellite-derived winds indicate that a trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing widespread cloudiness and showers over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible during the next 2 to 3 days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that time, the NHC says this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
The third area of concern is in the far northern Atlantic. The NHC says there’s a storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located about 450 miles west of the western Azores which is producing limited shower activity. Some subtropical development is possible while the low moves generally eastward during the next few days. For now, the NHC says there’s only a 20% chance that a subtropical storm will form here over the next 7 days.
