It’s a busy day for Earth scientists on the Big Island of Hawaii where geologists are monitoring an increase of earthquake activity around a volcano while meteorologists are tracking a developing disturbance in the Central Pacific that could become a threatening tropical cyclone in the coming days.
According to USGS, 142 earthquakes have rattled Hawaii Island in the last 130 days, with most centered around the Kilauea Volcano. While Kilauea is not erupting, USGS warns, “New seismic swarms may occur with little or no warning and result in either intrusion of magma or eruption of lava.” In the latest volcano update from the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), seismicity continues at the summit and upper East Rift Zone and at low rates in the middle East Rift Zone. Inflationary ground deformation continues at the summit but has slowed in the middle East Rift Zone. There are no significant changes in activity in the lower East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone of the volcano.
“Magma has been repressurizing the storage system beneath Halemaʻumaʻu and the south caldera region,” wrote the HVO in their latest volcano update. “Earthquakes and ground deformation observed since the intrusion indicate that magma is accumulating beneath the ground in the area of Makaopuhi Crater and Nāpau Crater, a well-known magma storage region in Kīlauea’s remote middle East Rift Zone. Additional earthquake swarms may occur with little or no warning and result in either intrusion of additional magma or eruption of lava in these regions.”
While scientists at USGS and HVO are tracking the earthquakes and watching for any signs of activity at Kilauea, meteorologists at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) on the island of Oahu are monitoring an area of disturbed weather well south and east of the volcanic island.
Approximately 1,300 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, a disturbance is expected to grow into a tropical cyclone in the coming days. According to the CPHC, shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization in association with an area of low pressure located well east southeast of Hawaii. However, they say that environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two. The disturbance is forecast to meander slowly northward or northeastward during the next day to two, while interacting with or possibly combining with another disturbance located a few hundred miles to its east northeast. The combined system is then forecast to accelerate west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin by Wednesday night.
Computer forecast models differ in how strong this system will become or where it will go. The CPHC believes there’s an 80% chance that the disturbance will become a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. Beyond then, computer forecast guidance suggests it could grow into a tropical storm or perhaps a hurricane. Some forecast model tracks bring the storm directly over the islands, with the Big Island of Hawaii first in the storm’s path; other tracks keep the storm south of the islands. But even if the storm did pass just south of the islands, it could be close enough to drop wind-whipped rains across the Aloha State.
Depending how this system takes shape, impacts from the storm could be felt in Hawaii as early as this coming weekend or as late as the early part of next week.
Should a tropical cyclone become a tropical storm in the Central Pacific basin, it would be given a Hawaiian name: Hone.
As with the Atlantic Hurricane Season, the Central Pacific Hurricane Season, of which Hawaii is a part of, runs from June 1 to November 30.
“The time to take action and commence preparations for your family, business, and property is when you are informed there is a possibility that hurricane hazards may affect your area,” writes Hawaii County Civil Defense.” They urge people to develop a family and business emergency plan that includes transportation readiness, evacuation routes and timing, details to secure homes and businesses, and know what to do with pets and animals prior to potential impacts.
“If you own a boat or small aircraft, take actions to safeguard your crafts and complete your actions before damaging surf or winds arrive. All coastal areas will be closed during the storm and roadways can be blocked by debris without warning,” Civil Defense adds.
Civil Defense also encourages people to develop a home survival kit and an evacuation kit. “You can assume that if a hurricane strikes your area, all utilities will be affected. Be ready to cope with loss of water, electricity, gas, and telephone service…Know your area and prepare evacuation plans if your home may be endangered by high surf, flood, or winds. Be prepared to evacuate before the danger arrives.”
Hawaii County Civil Defense says two types of residents should evacuate for a hurricane impact. The first are residents along coastal areas, where they should use tsunami evacuation maps as a guideline. The second are residents that live along ridge lines exposed to strong winds.
“Stay calm, stay alert, and stay informed. Listen to official announcements by Civil Defense and the National Weather Service,” Civil Defense advises.
Authorities recommend that people have enough food, water, medicines, pet food, and fuel to last three weeks. Due to the potential of storm impacts to harbors or airports which could make bringing supplies into Hawaii difficult, authorities say those in Hawaii to be better stocked than those facing tropical cyclone threats on the U.S. mainland.
In August 2018, Hawaii dealt with the eruption of Kilauea and a run-in with Hurricane Lane. A destructive eruption of the Lower East Rift Zone of Hawaii took out entire communities, covering them in lava. The lava flows concluded on August 8 but just weeks later, on August 22-25, Hurricane Lane and its remnants impacted the state, producing epic flooding across the Big Island of Hawaii. The resulting floods and landslides caused extensive damage and 1 fatality; more than 3,000 insurance claims for damage were made statewide and total economic losses exceeded $250 million. The storm produced 17 inches of rain on average over four days, with a single-day maximum of 57 inches in one location on the slopes of Mauna Kea on Hawaii Island. This made Hurricane Lane the wettest tropical storm ever recorded in Hawaii and the second wettest in the United States.
