A tornado threat persists over portions of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York today, Saturday March 19, as a strong cold front is forecast to move through the region, setting off showers and storms and the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
According to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC), a variety of hazards could blossom today: scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two are all possible across parts of the Northeast this afternoon. According to the SPC, isolated large hail and damaging winds are also possible, mainly across a portion of the South Atlantic coast during the late afternoon, but the greater threat will remain over the northeast.
A shortwave impulse embedded within a broader upper trough will move east-northeast across the Ohio Valley and into the northern Appalachians by evening. This set-up will provide a strengthening deep-layer shear within a buoyant warm sector that’ll stretch from the Delmarva region into upstate New York. It is this buoyant environment that could create severe thunderstorms and tornadoes today.
The SPC says that a mix of discrete cells and small clusters of storms should evolve over eastern portions of New York and Pennsylvania today, eventually pushing into New Jersey. Here, scattered damaging winds, isolated severe large hail, and a few brief tornadoes are the primary threats from today’s severe weather outbreak. As the airmass cools after the sun sets, the atmosphere will stabilize, bringing an end to the threat of severe weather. As a result, the convective activity over Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York will weaken as it heads north and east into southern New England tonight.
People in the northeast should monitor the National Weather Service for any watches or warnings they may issue for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. If a Tornado Warning is issued for a county, people there will need to take immediate steps to get to a place of safe shelter where they’re at; they may only have moments to react before a tornado strikes.
Even beyond the tornado threat, non-severe thunderstorms can be life-threatening too. The National Weather Service cautions: when thunder roars, head indoors; if thunder is close enough to be heard, lightning is close enough to kill.
