The National Hurricane Center has increased their odds that a system could try to form in the Gulf of America; they are tracking that concern along with Erin which is on its way to becoming a hurricane in the Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center says an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter has been sent to the Gulf of America to investigate a disturbance in the southern Gulf of America. In the Gulf, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased there in association with an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development.
“A tropical depression could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical development,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in an update at 2 pm today. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next few days.” Initially the NHC didn’t think this system would develop, but now believes there’s a 40% chance of a tropical cyclone forming here within the next day or two.
The NHC is also tracking Tropical Storm Erin which is strengthening while moving west; it is forecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow. For now, it is located about 890 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands and has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and a minimum central pressure of 999 mb or 29.50″.
Erin is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with this motion expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts and additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Erin is expected to become a hurricane on Friday and a Major Hurricane with 115 mph+ winds by Sunday morning.
There are no tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings up anywhere at this time for Erin.
However, swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
