The National Hurricane Center has an area of the western Atlantic being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development; a storm developing there could be a threat to Florida or elsewhere up the U.S. East Coast over the upcoming 7 days.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a large tropical wave located over the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While development in the short-term is not anticipated as the system moves over portions of the Greater Antilles, the NHC says environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development as the system moves generally west-northwestward towards the Bahamas and Cuba.
In fact, a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week when the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, or near Florida.
“Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system,” the NHC cautions.
Computer forecast models used by meteorologists to predict how the weather pattern will evolve remain conflicted and inconsistent with this system. Some model runs suggest no development, while others suggest the system will blossom into a hurricane near the Mid Atlantic coast; other models suggest a variety of scenarios between these two.
While the National Hurricane Center doesn’t expect a tropical cyclone to form within the next 48 hours, they do expect one to form over the next 7 days, saying there’s a 60% chance of formation during that period.
