Major Hurricane Kiko grew in intensity today, becoming a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. According to the National Hurricane Center, the hurricane is heading in the general direction of the Big Island of Hawaii but it is still too soon to know whether or not there will be any direct or indirect impacts to the Aloha State at this time.
In the latest update issued by the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center, Kiko is located about 1,600 miles east of Hilo on the Big Island of Hawaii. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 130 mph while the estimated minimum central pressure is down to 955 mb or 28.20″.
Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph and this motion is expected by the National Hurricane Center to continue for the next few days with a gradual shift towards the
west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed. While maximum sustained winds have strengthened to 130 mph, there are even higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible over the next day or two followed by fluctuations in intensity.
The National Hurricane Center’s official forecast only goes out to Monday morning; it currently shows Kiko as a hurricane just east of the Big Island of Hawaii. Where it goes beyond there remains uncertain, but global computer forecast models due suggest Kiko will at least bring indirect impacts, if not direct, to at least the Big Island of Hawaii next week.
The GFS and ECMWF are among many computer models meteorologists use to assist in weather forecasting. While meteorologists have many tools at their disposal to create weather forecasts, two primary global forecast models they do use are the ECMWF from Europe and the GFS from the United States. While the models share a lot of the same initial data, they differ with how they digest that data and compute possible outcomes. One is better than the other in some scenarios, while the opposite is true in others. No model is “right” all the time. Beyond the ECMWF and GFS models, there are numerous other models from other countries, other academic institutions, and private industry that are also considered when making a forecast.
Currently, both of these global models do project direct impacts to Hawaii’s Big Island next week, with the American model bringing the storm into eastern Hawaii and exiting on the northwest coast while the European model also brings it into the eastern part of the Big Island, but wraps much of the moisture around the southern and southwestern side of the island. Either scenarios would bring wind and rain to the Hawaii Island.
The Big Island of Hawaii is home to Kilauea, one of the most active volcanoes in the world. The volcano is erupting currently. Tropical cyclones or their remnants have passed over Hawaii during an eruption and the result is generally lots of steam/fog near the eruption site. The processes involved in the eruption are too big to be impacted by a hurricane and the processes involved in a tropical cyclone are also too big to be impacted by an erupting volcano.
Rainfall will be welcome in Hawaii –to an extent. The state is experiencing a long duration severe drought and wildfires have popped up on multiple islands, including Maui, Hawaii, and Oahu islands, in recent weeks. Rainfall would be appreciated to help with the drought, but excess rainfall could lead to flooding, flooding, and rock slides on some of the steep volcanic terrain there.
The models suggest impacts would occur next Wednesday, September 10, but forecasters caution that the path and intensity of the storm system could significantly change between now and then.
The intensification of Hurricane Kiko has been quite impressive today!https://t.co/qnbNX3mMrm https://t.co/Kjpr9ZD0ax
— the Weatherboy (@theWeatherboy) September 3, 2025
The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency (HI-EMA) is recommending that people in Hawaii be prepared for this storm and any natural disaster hazard that could threaten the island. HIEMA says, “Stock your emergency preparedness kit with enough food and water for at least 14 days. Other essential items include, a battery-operated radio to receive emergency communications and essential medication.” HI-EMA also recommends that people store their emergency supplies in a sturdy kit such as a rolling cooler.
“An added bonus to using a sturdy container is that it can be used as a seat if you need to evacuate to a shelter,” HI-EMA says.
Making sure clean water is part of the natural disaster preparedness planning in Hawaii is key too.
“Water is essential to sustaining life and is an important part of your emergency preparedness kit. General guidance is for people to store one gallon of water per person, per day for at least 14 days.”
