Tropical Storm Gabrielle Struggles; Second Storm May Form

Latest official track for Gabrielle from the National Hurricane Center. Image: NHC

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is fighting atmospheric challenges to its existence; nevertheless it is forecast to become a Hurricane and could threaten Bermuda directly or indirectly. Fortunately for the U.S. East Coast, direct impacts are not expected with the National Hurricane Center currently forecasting that this tropical cyclone will curve out to sea.

Gabrielle has a very large and broad envelope of convection and winds. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that it is quite atypical to see a structure like this for a tropical cyclone in this part of the world. The strong westerly shear that’s impacting the storm today should continue and then gradually abate at some point on Friday.

The other factor that is detrimentally impacting Gabrielle is the very dry air seen on water vapor imagery to the south and west of the center. Even after the shear abates, Gabrielle will continue moving through an environment of dry air through Friday, with moistening along its path over the weekend.

The official intensity forecast has been decreased for the next 24- 48 hours. However, the NHC still calls for Gabrielle to be a hurricane in about 4-5 days.

The NHC forecast puts Bermuda in the western side of the forecast cone towards the end of their forecast period. Because of that, people in Bermuda should closely monitor the evolving forecast in case they need to take action to protect themselves in the coming days. For now, the storm is too far away to warrant any Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches at this time.

A second system could develop in the yellow shaded area of the Atlantic. Image: NHC

While the NHC is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle, they are also monitoring a second area in the Atlantic that could develop into a Tropical Cyclone over time.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by Friday morning. According to the NHC, some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend through the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. For now, odds of formation are low but the NHC will keep an eye on it: near 0% chance for the next 48 hours and only 20% chance for the next 7 days.