Hurricane Barbara Is forecast to go through a period of rapid weakening today, nevertheless, flooding rains from the remnants of the system will likely impact Hawaii on Monday and Tuesday. As what’s left of Barbara marches west, eyes will also be on a new system forming near where Barbara did. Over time, that could become the next named storm of the basin: Cosme.

In the last update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC),  the center of Hurricane Barbara was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 132.6 West. Barbara is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph and  a west-northwest
to northwest motion is anticipated today, followed by a gradual turn toward the west through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is expected, and Barbara is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm on Friday and become a post-tropical cyclone late Saturday or Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.




While the winds will diminish as the system approaches Hawaii, the amount of moisture it is working with won’t. Very heavy rain is possible as the remnants approach the islands, with the heaviest rainfall amounts expected over eastern portions of Maui and Hawaii County. As those impacts near, the National Weather Service will likely need to issue flood-related advisories if the flood threat appears to be materializing.

While what’s left of Barbara will be heading west, a new system is forming. A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. According to the NHC, satellite images indicate that the shower activity has not become any better organized since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are still conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph, remaining well off the coast of Mexico.  According to the NHC, there’s a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and those odds increase to 90% over the next 5 days. Should this system become a named Tropical Storm, it would be called Cosme.




While the Pacific is active, the Atlantic remains quiet. The NHC expects no tropical cyclone formation anywhere in the Atlantic hurricane basin for at least the next 5 days.