The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1 but it looks like Mother Nature may want to get a jump start on things. While the American GFS computer forecast model has been notorious lately for modeling out “phantom storms” that do not materialize, there is consensus developing among the global weather forecast models that a tropical cyclone could form near Florida before the end of the month. While other forecast models like the European ECMWF aren’t as robust with their solution as its American counterpart is, having models come together on the concept of a tropical cyclone forming in the extended forecast range is worth watching.
While the Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 through to November 30, tropical cyclones do form outside of the season from time to time. As such, having a named system prior to June 1, while rare, isn’t completely out of question.
Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone does form. a very wet weather pattern will persist over the eastern United States throughout the balance of the month. Portions of the Mid Atlantic especially could be hit hard by flooding rains. Persistent rain shower and thunderstorm activity through to the end of the month could lead to flooding issues. The National Weather Service reminds people, “Turn around, don’t drown; never drive through flood waters!”
