The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is warning that in addition to summertime heat, some excessive heat is possible in portions of the eastern U.S. next week, with record breaking high temperatures possible too.
According to the CPC, there is at least a slight chance of excessive heat in an area stretching from Missouri to New Jersey, north to Michigan and southern Maine, and south to Tennessee and North Carolina between June 18 and June 24.
However, there is a higher, moderate risk of excessive heat over Ohio, Indiana, and northern Kentucky as well as New Jersey, Delaware, much of Maryland, northeastern Virginia, southeastern New York, and all of Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Massachusetts over the June 18-20 period. This means there’s at least a 40-60% chance of excessive heat in those areas those days.
According to the CPC, computer models are in good agreement that an amplified longwave pattern with a trough over the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and a broad ridge centered across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic will help warm things in the East. While this weather pattern favors below-normal temperatures across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Basin, and northern California, strong ridging and its associated positive height anomalies will increase above-normal temperature probabilities throughout the eastern and central CONUS. With anomalous mid-level ridging, temperatures may climb more than 10 degrees above normal across portions of the east.
