Just over a year since catastrophic wildfires erupted on the islands of Maui and Hawaii in the state of Hawaii, Extreme Drought has returned. While very dry conditions are persisting in Hawaii, there could be some relief in the form of a tropical cyclone, although a tropical cyclone could bring other hazards to the islands beyond quenching parched landscapes.
In today’s released Drought Monitor update for the Aloha State, portions of southern Maui from Kihei to Manawainui and in portions of the South Kohala District of the Big Island of Hawaii up the slopes of Mauna Kea from Waikoloa Village and Waimea are now considered to be in “Extreme Drought”, an escalation from last week’s drought assessment across the state. According to the National Drought Mitigation Center, the amount of Hawaii covered by any drought is still at 96.7%, as it was last week, but the amount of severe drought territory has more than doubled from 3.1% to 6.7%. The Drought Severity and Coverage Index for Hawaii is now worse than it was last year on August 8, 2023 when fires ravaged the town of Lahaina and the Upcountry on Maui and the South Kohala Coast on the Big Island of Hawaii. The index stands today at 193, up from the 167 it was last week and up from the 150 it was last year this time.
While drought is taking hold across Hawaii, the National Weather Service’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, co-located with the Honolulu National Weather Service Office, is tracking a disturbance in the central Pacific basin that could develop into a tropical cyclone. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are located about a thousand miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a broad area of low pressure. According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some development of this system this weekend or early next week while moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
Earlier today forecasters there thought there was a 60% chance this system would develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 7 days. But in an afternoon update, they dropped those odds down to a 50-50 shot. Should a tropical cyclone actually form within the Central Pacific Hurricane Basin where Hawaii is, it would be given the Hawaiian name Hone.
Most extended global computer forecast model guidance isn’t impressed by this disturbance, and while some suggest a mild tropical cyclone could form, it isn’t expected to blossom into a hurricane at this time. Most model guidance brings this system closer to the Big Island with time, but keeps most of the precipitation south of the chain. The best odds of precipitation from it would be next Monday or Tuesday. While Hawaii would likely welcome beneficial rains from a stronger tropical cyclone, it wouldn’t want tropical storm force winds or worse to lash the islands or other storm-related hazards such as storm surge and coastal flooding.
For now, the meteorologists at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will continue to monitor this disturbance in the coming days.
