While strong winds and some storm surge flooding are possible along the Mid Atlantic coast, flooding remains the top threat from a potential cyclone that may or may not develop along the East Coast. With the storm getting closer to land and struggling to take on tropical or subtropical storm characteristics, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) now believes it is unlikely a tropical or subtropical storm will form, Nevertheless, tropical storm force winds and heavy rain will push inland over the next several days creating flooding issues.
The low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring off the Carolina coast has not become better organized this morning. According to the NHC, the low-level circulation being monitored remains elongated and not well defined, based on overnight data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and recent visible satellite images. The flight-level temperature data from the aircraft also suggested a frontal boundary remains in close proximity to the low, which is consistent with the cloud pattern of the system. The strongest winds and heaviest rains lie to the north and northeast of the estimated center and are currently spreading across southeastern North Carolina.
“With limited time before it moves inland, the chances of this system becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone continue to decrease,” the National Hurricane Center said in their latest Forecast Discussion. “The intensity guidance shows quick weakening once the low crosses the coastline,” the NHC added.
While it is now unlikely that this disturbance will become a named entity, it will still bring a variety of hazards to the East Coast.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.
On the forecast track from the NHC, the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through early Wednesday. Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. The NHC says lttle change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, but steady weakening is anticipated after the system moves inland. The low is forecast to dissipate over the Carolinas by early Wednesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center. A National Ocean Service station at Wrightsville
Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 51 mph and a gust of 67 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb or 29.68 inches.
Strong winds, storm surge flooding, fresh water flooding, and tornadoes are possible as the storm moves inland. Tropical storm force wind conditions are expected within the warning area for the next several hours. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach 1-3′ above ground from the South Santee River in South Carolina to Oregon Inlet in North Carolina, including the Neuse, Bay, Pamlico and Pungo Rivers in North Carolina. Meanwhile, 4-8″ of rain is expected, with isolated totals near 10″ possible across portions of northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2-4″ is expected, with isolated totals up to 6″, is possible through Tuesday. 1-3″ is expected, with locally higher amounts, over much of Virginia through Wednesday. All of this rainfall could lead to a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. A few tornadoes may also occur through this evening across eastern North Carolina.
