A significant winter storm is forecast to form in the eastern United States as Arctic air surges south, bringing upwards of a foot of snow to portions of Indiana to New Jersey. Some areas could even get more across southern Indiana and Ohio and the higher terrain of West Virginia and western Maryland.
While Arctic air surges south from the Northern Plains through the central and eastern U.S., strong northwesterly winds on the southwest side of a low pressure system lingering over southeastern Canada will lead to continued lake-effect snow bands downwind of the Great Lakes through the end of this week and into the weekend. The heaviest snow is expected downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie, where total snowfall amounts well over a foot are expected in the most persistent bands. Some moderate to locally heavy snowfall will be possible downwind of Lakes Superior and Michigan as well, though this should taper off by Saturday.
An upper-level shortwave and accompanying cold front sweeping through the Midwest will also bring some light wintry precipitation chances through Friday morning before some much more substantial accumulating snowfall in the central Appalachians into the day Friday. Winter weather-related advisories have been issued for snow totals of 6-12″. While snow should taper off there by Saturday morning, it’ll push east into the coastal Mid Atlantic area, bringing substantial snow there too.
Because this system will head out to sea and not curve up the coast, there will be little snow on the northern side of the system. As such, the New York City metro area, as well as northeastern Pennsylvania and southeastern Upstate New York may only see an inch or two of snow. As you head south, snow totals will increase with 3-6″ expected in much of central Pennsylvania and parts of central New Jersey south of I-195. Even more snow will fall across Maryland, Delaware, extreme southern New Jersey, and northern Virginia where 6-12″ of snow is forecast to fall.
Snow in the Mid Atlantic will fall in 2 phases; the first will come Friday evening as light snow falls as the Arctic air mass moves through. The more significant snow will arrive late Sunday into Monday, making for a messy Monday morning commute if schools and businesses don’t close or delay their opening.
Following the winter storm system, strong cold advection and an Arctic airmass will result in below normal temperatures and blustery conditions continuing through to the end of the week.
