The latest official forecast from the Miami, Florida-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) calls for newly formed Tropical Depression #3 to intensify over time, eventually becoming Hurricane Bret as it moves west into the Caribbean. This newest storm for the Atlantic Hurricane Season is an unusual one, forming very early in the season for its genesis area of the Atlantic which on its own is experiencing well above normal water temperatures.
According to the NHC, environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening over the next few days, with a much warmer than normal ocean in the depression’s path, along with plentiful mid-level moisture and light shear. This should promote strengthening through midweek. However, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase by most of the model guidance around day 3 in response to an upper-level trough. As a result, the NHC forecast shows the intensity leveling off in about 5 days. However, the NHC cautions that their intensity forecast is also more uncertain than normal, due to differences shown in computer forecast models along with the aclimatological nature of this system.
For now, Tropical Depression #3 is forecast to strengthen and move across the Lesser Antilles as a hurricane on Thursday and Friday, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where these hazards could occur. However, the NHC says that everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor updates to the forecast for this system and have their hurricane plan in place.
When Tropical Depression #3 reaches Tropical Storm status, it will be given the name “Bret”, the second name to be used for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. There was an unnamed subtropical storm in January, making this the third tropical or subtropical cyclone of the 2023 hurricane year. While Tropical Depression #3 is the third of the year, it will get only the second name on the list due to that unnamed January system.
While meteorologists are busy tracking the future of what’ll likely become Bret, eyes are also on the Atlantic where another system may be developing between Tropical Depression #3 and the coast of Africa. According to the National Hurricane Center, showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form within the next few days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. For now, the NHC says there’s a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours but those odds grow to 40% over the next 7 days.
