The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone #6, an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico that is forecast to eventually strengthen into a tropical storm and hurricane before making landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. When the storm strengthens to tropical storm status, it will be given the name Francine; if the forecasts of it strengthening more into a hurricane come to fruition, it would retain the name Francine.
Due to threats posted by this developing tropical cyclone, the Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Barra del Tordo north to the Mouth of the Rio Grande river. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says additional tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for the U.S. coastline for the coming days.
As of the latest advisory from the NHC, the center of the developing storm was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 94.6 West, which puts it at about 340 miles south-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River and about 575 mules south of Port Arthur, Texas. The storm system is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph and a slow northwestward motion followed by a turn more northward is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday.
Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by the NHC before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
For now, tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles, primarily west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb or 29.62 inches.
As this system approaches the coast, numerous weather related hazards are likely: strong winds, flooding rains, and life-threatening storm surge. Strong winds could begin to impact the coast beginning Tuesday. The storm is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12″ from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the Texas Coast and into Louisiana through Thursday. According to the NHC, this rainfall would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico coast within areas of onshore flow but a more significant storm surge could impact Texas and Louisiana later in the week.
