Increased Risk of Landfalling Hurricane to NJ, NY, MD, and DE

This is the satellite view of the East Coast from October 28, 2012 with Hurricane Sandy spinning about in the Atlantic ahead of its landfall on the Mid Atlantic. Image: NOAA

Tropical meteorology experts are saying there is an increased risk of the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season producing a landfalling hurricane onto the coasts of New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and New York this season compared to climatological norms.

The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1 and runs through to the end of November. According to the National Hurricane Center, there is no area in the basin being monitored for potential development at this time.

While no storms have formed or are about to form in the immediate future, experts with Colorado State University have expressed some concern for portions of the U.S. coastline for the upcoming season. Just last month, a team of researchers from Colorado State University (CSU) unveiled their 2025 seasonal outlook at the 2025 National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre Island. While they say it won’t be nearly as busy as last year’s season, it still looks like it’ll be an above normal season and the U.S. East Coast has an elevated risk of seeing landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes this year.

In New Jersey, the climatological probability of there being at least 1 named storm within 50 miles is 23%; the probability of a hurricane is 7%; the probability of a major hurricane is only 1%. However, in the latest outlook for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, those odds increase to 28% for a named storm and 9% for a hurricane, reflecting several percentage points of greater risk for the season.

This list will be used to name tropical storms and hurricanes in the upcoming 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Image: Weatherboy

In New York, the climatological probability of there being at least 1 named storm within 50 miles is 23%; the probability of a hurricane is 7%; the probability of a major hurricane is only 1%. But with the 2025 outlook, those odds increase to 32% for a named storm, up to 12% for a hurricane, and 3% for a major hurricane this coming season.

In Delaware, the climatological probability of there being at least 1 named storm within 50 miles is 23%; the probability of a hurricane is 6%; the probability of a major hurricane is only 1%. But with the 2025 outlook, those odds increase too to 28% for a named storm, and up to 8% for a hurricane. The risk of a major hurricane is the same as usual.

In Maryland, the climatological probability of there being at least 1 named storm within 50 miles is 31%; the probability of a hurricane is 11%; the probability of a major hurricane is only 1%. But with the 2025 outlook, those odds also increase to 37% for a named storm and up to 13% for a hurricane.

Forecasters warn that it takes only one storm to create a disaster. “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity,” wrote the Colorado State University Tropical Cyclone, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team (TC-RAMS.)