According to the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Erick is forecast to become a hurricane and a strong one at that in the coming days, prompting authorities to issue Hurricane Warnings and Watches for the coast.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado while a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco and the area east of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the potential arrival of tropical storm force winds.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
“Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later today or tonight,” the National Hurricane Center warns. “Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick.”
For now, Erick is a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. It is located roughly 265 miles southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico and about 395 miles southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico. The minimum central pressure is down to 1001 mb or 29.56″.
Erick is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph. A slower motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a faster northwestward motion Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be
near the coast on Thursday. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday.
Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8-16″ inches, with maximum totals of 20″ across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3-5″ with maximum totals of 8″ are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
