While Francine remains a strong Tropical Storm now, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects it to rapidly intensify and slam into the Gulf coast as a hurricane, bringing with it the possibility of a life threatening storm surge over a wide area. With the NHC refining its forecasts, the location of watches and warnings have been updated today.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the region between Sabine Pass, Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. “Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion”, urges the NHC for those in the Hurricane Warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border and Mobile Bay while a Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for portions of the Gulf coast, including the Texas and Louisiana coasts east of High Island to Cameron, the area east of Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and the metropolitan New Orleans area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
As of the last update from the NHC, Francine was a strong Tropical Storm with winds of 65 mph; it was moving to the northeast at 10 mph with a minimum central pressure of 987 mb or 29.15″. The storm is located about 135 miles east of the mouth of the Rio Grande River and about 360 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana.
While Francine is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph now, the NHC says a continued northeastward motion and a faster forward speed are expected tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight, and then make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday or Wednesday
night. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward into Mississippi on Wednesday night or Thursday. The center is expected to pass near or over New Orleans.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts and the NHC says strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning, and Francine will likely become a hurricane tonight. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after landfall.
Hurricane wind conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical Storm wind conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4-8″, with local amounts to 12″ possible across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach 5-10 feet from Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana to Port Fourchon as well as Vermilion Bay. Significant storm surge is also expected beyond these areas although at a lower depth. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
“Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees,” says the NHC. “However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.”
A few tornadoes are also possible Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are expected to spread across the remainder of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
