Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are anticipated beginning Wednesday night through the upcoming weekend. The repeating rounds of heavy rainfall will create a widespread, significant flash flooding, particularly focused on the Lower Ohio Valley, Mid-South, and Arkansas. The highest confidence for widespread moderate and major river flooding is from the eastern Ozarks through the Lower Ohio Valley late this week through the weekend.
Responsible for the heavy rains is a potent spring storm will bring widespread severe weather and event winter weather conditions beyond the threat of significant, life-threatening flash flooding, widespread severe weather. An energetic upper-level trough will deepen over the western and central U.S. as an accompanying surface low pressure system strengthens in the lee of the Rockies through the day Tuesday. Intensifying moist southerly return flow will lead to an increasing chance of thunderstorms ahead of a lifting warm front and eastward moving cold front over the central and southern Plains, especially by the late afternoon/evening hours.
The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center says there is an “Enhanced Risk” (level 3/5) for the threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and several tornadoes, some of which could be strong, especially during the late evening hours. In addition, expanding storm coverage and the potential for heavy downpours may also lead to some isolated instances of flash flooding Tuesday night.
Yes, it may be corny, but it’s catchy too!
And it could save your life: this video from the NWS reminds you to always turn around, don’t drown; NEVER drive through flood waters!
Weatherboy is a proud ambassador of the National Weather Service’s Weather Ready Nation program! pic.twitter.com/qqr6TugE65
— the Weatherboy (@theWeatherboy) July 10, 2018
On Wednesday, the progression of the system will begin to slow heading into the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, especially with southward extent, as an upper-level ridge builds over the southeastern U.S. More widespread storms are expected in the warm sector ahead of the cold front with an increasing tendency for storms to cluster and repeat over the same regions by Wednesday evening as the progress of the cold front slows, most likely along an axis from the Lower Ohio Valley southwestward through the Mid-South. Increasing moisture pooling ahead of the cold front will also lead to more intense downpours following another day of return flow. This will set the stage for a a multi-day significant, life-threatening flash flood event.
According to the National Weather Service, “The placement of the cold front and exact axis of heaviest rainfall is likely to change as the event nears. However, there is high confidence in several inches of heavy rain, with some locations potentially seeing amounts in excess of 10″ over the next 7 days.”
Beyond the flash flood and severe weather threat, a late-season winter storm is also forecast in the colder air to the north of the system across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Snow has already begun this morning and will continue to increase in coverage and intensity into Tuesday evening, lasting through Wednesday night, as the system intensifies and lifts northeastward through the region. An axis of heavy snow totals is forecast along and to the north of the surface low track
from the eastern Dakotas east through central/northern Minnesota and into northern Wisconsin. Storm total snowfall of 4-8″, locally higher, is expected. Gusty winds may lead to areas of blowing snow and difficult travel conditions. A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected just to the southeast of the heavy snow from central Minnesota/Wisconsin east into the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
In addition to catastrophic flooding, severe weather including strong tornadoes and very large hail, are also possible: https://t.co/t3fMU8IS0c
— the Weatherboy (@theWeatherboy) April 1, 2025
A leading shortwave ahead of the system will also bring wintry mix to the interior Northeast/New England on Wednesday
with precipitation beginning as snow/freezing rain before changing over to mostly rain as warmer air reaches the region. Some light to moderate snow and ice accumulations are possible for higher elevations and portions of northern Maine.
