Severe storms capable of tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail, will be possible today from central Arkansas eastward into parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, northern Tennessee, and much of Kentucky.

A fast moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over Kansas is moving east into the mid-Mississippi Valley this evening. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move across Missouri while a warm front becomes better established across portions of southern Illinois and Kentucky. This boundary area will make conditions ripe for severe thunderstorm formation.

Beyond storms around the warm front, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a trailing cold front now from southeast Missouri into much of Arkansas. These storms will take on supercell characteristics, possibly producing large hail and tornadoes as they do. Storms will remain active for several hours into this evening. Over time, they should weaken as they track into western Tennessee.

Due to the threat of severe weather, the National Weather Service has been issuing Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches and Warnings today.

Some thunderstorms may also drop copious amounts of rain, creating flash flood conditions as they do so. The National Weather Service warns, “turn around, don’t drown; never drive through flooded roadways.”