A very violent spring continues across the middle of the country with more severe weather likely on Tuesday. The greatest threat of severe storms are expected Tuesday across the Midwest, especially across portions of Iowa and Missouri into Wisconsin and western and northern Illinois. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are expected. There is also a marginal risk of damaging storms across the northern parts of New England on Tuesday.
According to the Storm Prediction Center, a notably strong belt of cyclonically curved westerlies will extend from the south-central Great Plains to the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a lead, convectively augmented shortwave trough likely to spread from the central High Plains toward the Lake Superior vicinity late Tuesday night. An elongated surface low over eastern Nebraska Tuesday morning will deepen and lift northeast to northern Wisconsin/Upper Michigan by evening, with a surface warm front lifting northward ahead of the surface low. As this happens, a trailing cold front will surge east across Iowa/eastern Kansas/northern Missouri from mid afternoon into the evening.
This atmospheric set-up will lead to a very volatile situation setting the stage for the formation of supercells capable of large hail and a few tornadoes, including strong (EF2+) tornado potential. A well-organized/fast-moving squall line capable of increasingly widespread/intense damaging winds also exists. The severe risk will persist into the Upper Great Lakes region and middle Mississippi Valley overnight.
Severe weather could also impact the southern Plains too. Isolated storms are possible into northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas by late afternoon/evening. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with this activity.
While the risk isn’t as great as the Midwest, there is a risk of severe weather across portions of New England too. A weak upper shortwave trough will move across southern Quebec and northern New England. This will result in a band of enhanced westerly deep-layer flow from northern New York into Maine. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints into the low 60s, with strong heating and steepening low-level lapse rates. Forecast atmospheric instability there will support organized thunderstorm cells; some severe hail will be possible along with locally damaging wind gusts.
