More violent thunderstorms are returning to the Midwest this afternoon and evening, threatening more people with more potentially lethal weather. Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and several tornadoes.
According to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC), a variety of atmospheric ingredients are coming together to create a violent period of severe weather. A shortwave trough over northern Arizona this morning has been accelerating east this afternoon,
with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This set-up will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast Colorado now, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest Kansas and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma.
As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east these squall lines will persist, but given current model guidance, the SPC says the threat zone will push into eastern Kansas.
