A day after the Miami, Florida-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) said it’d be likely a tropical cyclone would form north of Puerto Rico, the NHC now isn’t confident any tropical cyclone will form over the next 7 days. The NHC is tracking two areas of disturbed weather that could become tropical cyclones, but the odds of that happening are low for now.
According to the NHC’s latest Tropical Outlook, satellite data indicate that the low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas continues to produce an area of gale-force winds on its northeast side. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. This system is moving into an area of strong upper-level winds and dry air, and the chances of it becoming a short-lived tropical storm appear to be decreasing.
This low pressure system is forecast by the NHC to move slowly west-northwestward today and then turn northward and northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, the NHC says there’s only a 30% chance that a system will develop here over the next 48 hours and over the next 7 days.
An area showing a little more promise of development, although not much, is over the southwestern Caribbean Sea where an area of disturbed weather has formed. According to the NHC, this system is expected to move westward during the next several days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. The NHC says a tropical depression could form late this week when the system reaches the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea, although odds aren’t great yet. Chances of formation are at 0 for the next 48 hours but grow to 40% over the next 7 days.
Elsewhere, there are no other areas of concern throughout the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through to the end of November.