The National Hurricane Center  (NHC) in Miami, Florida is monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico for signs of possible development into a tropical cyclone.

According to the latest Tropical Outlook issued by the NHC this afternoon, a broad area of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The NHC says that gradual development is possible, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving generally northeastward.

Some of the major global computer forecast models that meteorologists use in their forecasting work do show the system developing into a tropical cyclone over time. While both the European ECMWF and American GFS model show some development this week, the American model intensifies it more than others, bringing impacts to Florida and the U.S. East Coast beyond a Florida strike over time.




For now, the NHC is only giving the storm system a 50-50 odds of forming into a tropical cyclone. They do caution people along the Gulf though: “Regardless of development, this system could produce gusty winds, rainfall, and rough surf along portions of the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Saturday. ”

If the threat of formation increases, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system Thursday afternoon.