Tuesday will feature some potent thunderstorms and soaking heavy rain showers in the northeast that could create flooding concerns. A low pressure system will moves across Ontario and Quebec tonight and Tuesday. An associated strong cold front will cross the I-95 corridor Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, setting off a line of showers and storms. High pressure from the Great Lakes will follow for Wednesday but not before several inches of rain fall on some and remain over our area into Friday night. Another period of heavy rain could return next weekend as a series of disturbances push into the Mid Atlantic then.
While Tuesday may start off with some showers or storms, the main act will occur during the PM hours. An amplifying upper-level trough will approach from the west as a surface cold front arrives. With more clouds and humidity tomorrow, Tuesday will be slightly cooler than today’s readings in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. It will be quite humid and the National Weather Service believes that the atmosphere will be capable of raining 2-2.25″ of rain during the PM hours. With plenty of moisture and instability available, severe storms are possible. The greatest threat of severe thunderstorms will be over New England; however, storms with frequent lightning are possible into the Carolinas. Beyond frequent lightning in all of these storms, the threat of some wind damage is the greatest severe weather threat from these storms.
With isolated pockets of exceptionally heavy rain expected, there could be flash flood concerns. The National Weather Service cautions residents, “Turn around, don’t drown! Never drive through flood waters.”
Cooler and drier air will arrive on Wednesday as a much more comfortable air mass returns for the balance of the work week. However, eyes will be on another low pressure system that could bring another round of soaking rains to the northeast in time for the weekend.