A potent weather system will set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop over portions of Virginia, Washington DC, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York tomorrow. While damaging wind gusts are the primary threat, there is also the possibility of isolated tornadoes in tomorrow’s forecast severe weather.
A shortwave trough will move from portions of the Mid-South into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday, with w weak frontal boundary forecast to be pushing through the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Ahead of this boundary, moisture return is expected to continue through the day into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. According to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center, widely-scattered to scattered convection is expected to develop both ahead of the weak boundary and within areas of pre frontal confluence from northern Virginia into southeastern New York. It is this convection that can cause trouble in the form of severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.
A thunderstorm is classified as “severe” when it contains one or more of the following: hail 1″ or greater in diameter, winds gusting in excess of 57 mph, and/or a tornado. The National Weather Service could issue Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watches ahead of tomorrow’s expected severe weather impacts. The National Weather Service could also issue warnings on a county-by-county basis for tornadoes or severe thunderstorms once they’re confirmed and impacted communities on the ground.
