A tropical cyclone is developing in the central Atlantic; it is likely to become Tropical Storm Ernesto over time and perhaps even achieve hurricane status as it heads off to the west.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. In their latest Tropical Outlook, the NHC says that environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.  In fact, the NHC believes a tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. From there, the system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week.

The NHC says there’s a 50-50 chance that a tropical cyclone will form here over the next 48 hours but increases those odds to 90% for tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days.

Most computer forecast guidance suggests the storm will develop into a Tropical Storm in the next 36 hours and a full-fledged hurricane in about 72 hours. Once the system becomes a named tropical storm, it would be given the next name on the list of 2024 Atlantic Storm Names: Ernesto.