The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area in the Caribbean for possible tropical cyclone development in the coming days.

According to the NHC’s latest Tropical Outlook, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea.

Both the American GFS and European ECMWF global computer weather forecast models have been inconsistent with what could happen in this region in the coming days, unable to provide meteorologists with a high-confidence outlook in how things will evolve here.  The NHC does point out should formation occur, it will be slow to do so. While the NHC says there’s a near-zero percent chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours, they say there’s a 40% chance of such formation over the next 7 days.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin, the NHC isn’t tracking any other disturbance for possible development.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs just a month longer through to the end of November.