There are more tropical fizzles than storms in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin now; threats for tropical storm formation along the U.S. east coast and the Mexican Gulf Coast have faded, with no real tropical cyclone formation expected for at least the next 7 days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) thought a tropical cyclone may form from a system that moved into Florida early today, but it never formed but instead fizzled. Another system over the southern Gulf of Mexico forming in the wake of Tropical Storm Alberto is also not likely to develop into a tropical cyclone soon.
A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing poorly organized shower and thunderstorm activity. According to the NHC, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form before the system reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico Sunday night. However, the odds of that happening are only 40% according to the latest NHC Tropical Outlook.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely to cause localized flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico and Deep South Texas through the end of the weekend. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if necessary. This system has helped produce gale-force winds near portions of the coast of eastern Mexico, which are expected to diminish this evening.
