Tropical Storm Tammy which formed earlier on Wednesday is now forecast by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida to intensify into a hurricane by the end of this weekend. With the approach of the storm, some islands have issued Tropical Storm Watches ahead of Tammy’s possible arrival.
As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Tammy was located about 460 miles east of the Windward Islands and had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It was moving to the west at 17 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is down to 1006 mb or 29.71″.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and Guadeloupe. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. According to the National Hurricane Center, additional watches and warnings will likely be required later tonight or on Thursday.
While Tammy is moving toward the west now, it is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and Tammy could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the
Tropical storm force wind conditions are possible within the watch area beginning on Friday.
Tammy is forecast to produce significant rainfall. Through Saturday night, the storm will drop 3-6″ of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 10″, across portions of the northern Windward and Leeward Islands. 1-2″ amounts with some isolated 4″ amounts are expected for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and portions of eastern Puerto Rico. The National Hurricane Center says that these rainfall amounts could produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
The tropical storm is also producing high waves and swells. Swells generated by Tammy will begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even expert swimmers and surfers should avoid the ocean until Tammy’s hazards have passed.
The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through to the end of November. Beyond Tammy, the National Hurricane Center doesn’t believe any other tropical cyclone will be an issue in the basin for the next 7 days.