
The National Weather Service has begun to issue Winter Storm Watches for an impactful storm expected to hit portions of the I-95 corridor and points north and west this weekend. After the storm passes, the next major weather story will be the Arctic air moving in behind the storm.
A strong arctic cold front will cross through the Mid Atlantic early Sunday morning, with cold advection of a much colder airmass beginning later in the day and especially into the night. As it does so, an area of low pressure will also be developing over the Deep South near the tail-end of the arctic front. This area of low pressure will bring significant wintry precipitation to the Houston metro area and then ride along the frontal boundary and strengthen as it moves off of the Carolina coastline by Sunday afternoon.
As with any winter storm, the track and strength of the surface low will ultimately determine what type of precipitation and how much falls in its path. For now, it appears the track of the low will be close enough to the coast, with a widespread accumulating snowfall likely. However, if the track of the low, hugs the immediate coastline, or ends up inland over the coastal plain, then the most significant snows will be focused north and west of I-95 with more rain than snow for the immediate coast.

Regardless of path, it appears the greatest potential for heaviest snowfall remains for areas along the I-95 corridor and points north and west. Within this zone, forecast amounts are as high as 6-12″ although it seems that the heavier snow will fall on the lower side of that band into the 6-9″ range. Elsewhere, 3-6″ of snow are expected out there with lesser amounts expected far inland or at the immediate coast where slightly milder conditions won’t support ideal snow creation.
With 6″ or more of snow possible, the National Weather Service has started to issue Winter Storm Watches for the region. They caution, “Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel could be very difficult.” For most locations, the Winter Storm Watch is up from Sunday Morning until Sunday Evening.
Following the snow potential on Sunday into early Monday, the heart of the arctic airmass will begin to advect into the Mid Atlantic late Sunday night. Increasing northwest winds could pose a blowing snow threat where ever the heavier snowfall occurs; the winds could also create dangerously low wind chill factors across the area.