The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook created by Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project was released this morning at the 2019 National Tropical Weather Conference (NTWC) in South Padre Island, TX. The product of CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science, the Tropical Meteorology Project is well known for its seasonal outlooks for the annual Atlantic Hurricane Season which stretches from June 1 through to November 30 each year.
The effort is led by Research Scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach, who presented his findings to the NTWC attendees.
Dr. Klotzbach went through the forecast and the analytical thinking that went into it. Overall, the outlook is calling for a normal to slightly below normal upcoming season. In a typical season, there are 12 named storms; the CSU forecast is over that at 13. While the average season has about 6.4 hurricanes, only 5 are forecast for the new season which starts June 1.
“This forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using 29 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. For the first time, we are also using a statistical/dynamical model based off of data from the ECMWF System 5 as an additional forecast guidance tool,” the study, which was released today, says.
“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
Weatherboy joins the Insurance Information Institute, Interstate Restoration, and Ironshore as project sponsors this year for CSU.
Dr. Klotzbach received his Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from CSU in 2007. Klotzbach has been employed in the Department of Atmospheric Science for the past eighteen years and was co-author on the Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts with Dr. William Gray through 2005. He became first author on the seasonal hurricane forecasts in 2006. Klotzbach developed the two-week forecasts currently being issued during the peak months of the hurricane season between August-October. He has published over two dozen articles in peer-reviewed journals such as Journal of Climate and Weather and Forecasting.