There is a threat of large hail over portions of Texas today as a broad area of severe thunderstorms blossom during the afternoon and evening from daytime heating. According to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC), there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over large parts of Texas; there’s also a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms over portions of Florida and the Mid Atlantic.
Scattered large hail, some over 2″ in diameter, and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts isolated to 75 mph or more are expected this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a front.
According to the SPC, the severe weather potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow boundary across the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. In general, a favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central into north Texax to the south of current convective activity, along with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.
The SPC says that a recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest Texas, with a dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front arcing northeastward from the low across western north Texas into southern Oklahoma and western/northern Arkansas will likely serve as a focus for additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are also expected across much of central Texas today. The SPC says that with ample instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of Texas. Eventual weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning, although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal Texas during the early morning hours.
In Florida, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the stalled front this afternoon across the northern Florida Peninsula and southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. There could be water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail within the more robust cores.
Strong to locally damaging winds may also occur with high-based convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, central Maryland, northern Virginia, and eastern and central West Virginia.
