The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance off the U.S. East Coast for possible tropical or subtropical development. In a special update released this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center believes there’s a 50-50 chance that a system will form here over the next 5 days. While the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn’t begin until June 1, storms have formed early in previous seasons. The Eastern Pacific Basin already got a jump-start, having a record-breaking pre-season system weeks ago.
According to the National Hurricane Center, an area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through Sunday. The National Hurricane Center expects to issue a Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system by or before 9pm ET today.
Both the American GFS and European ECMWF global computer forecast models suggest some type of low pressure system will form and deepen here in the coming days, but they differ on system track and intensity. Model performance isn’t the best with systems not yet fully developed and it may take a day or so for forecast models to have a better handle on how this storm system will evolve.
While the Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn’t start until June 1, the National Hurricane Center is urging people to be properly prepared for the upcoming season. While NOAA won’t release their official seasonal outlooks until later this month, many other leading tropical weather forecasters are calling for a busy Atlantic hurricane season. With a busy season possible ahead, the National Hurricane Center recommends that people develop a written action plan, consider helping neighbors in their planning process, make sure their homes are strengthened prior to being threatened by a tropical system, make sure insurance is in-order, stock up on essential supplies, develop an evacuation plan, and ultimately identify and determine any risks you may face from a storm.