A dusty Atlantic is preventing tropical cyclone formation even as surface water temperatures continue to rise throughout the Atlantic Hurricane basin.
According to leaders at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), significant plumes of dust and dry air lifting up from Africa’s Sahara Desert often make their way across the ocean, generally across an area that is prime for tropical cyclone formation later in the season. These plumes of dust are common for the start of the season and generally fade, allowing tropical cyclones to blossom when they aren’t around.
NOAA scientists say that layers of plumes of dust in the atmosphere are notoriously dry, with the air surrounding them having about 50% less moisture than air not near this dust. Due to the lack of this atmospheric moisture, cloud formation and thunderstorm activity essential for tropical cyclone development is muted.
With the dense dust there, no tropical cyclone formation is expected anytime soon over the Atlantic. In today’s Tropical Outlook, the NHC said they expect no tropical cyclone formation for at least the next 7 days.
While things are quiet for now, they may not last. Experts at Colorado State University (CSU) which publish seasonal outlooks for hurricane activity continue to forecast well above normal tropical cyclone activity this season. “This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” CSU forecasters stated during their most recent tropical update. “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.”
