Over the weekend, computer forecast guidance and meteorologists at the National Weather Service were calling for the possibility of a mid-week nor’easter in portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Unfortunately for snow lovers, that east coast snow storm threat has fizzled out with many of the ingredients for a storm there, just not coming together at the right time.

The GFS and ECMWF are among many computer models meteorologists use to assist in weather forecasting. While meteorologists have many tools at their disposal to create weather forecasts, two primary global forecast models they do use are the ECMWF from Europe and the GFS from the United States. While the models share a lot of the same initial data, they differ with how they digest that data and compute possible outcomes. One is better than the other in some scenarios, while the opposite is true in others. No model is “right” all the time. Beyond the ECMWF and GFS models, there are numerous other models from other countries, other academic institutions, and private industry that are also considered when making a forecast.

The models, especially the American GFS, were suggesting robust winter storm possibilities for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast for Thursday and Friday; the European ECMWF was also suggesting another storm on Monday. But now it appears all of those storm opportunities are falling apart, with the right ingredients needed for a snowstorm to come together, but the timing and location of those ingredients coming together all wrong.

Instead of a significant snowstorm, there will be rain and snow showers in the Mid Atlantic, light snow in New England, and heavier snow squalls coming off the Great Lakes in the typical snow belt zones.

In the meantime, no major global forecast model is projecting any substantial winter storm for the Mid Atlantic or Northeast anytime over the next five days at this time.