Tropical Storm Ernesto formed this evening and some computer forecast model guidance says it could strike Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane this weekend. For now, the focus of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is on the near-term impacts across the Leeward Islands where different government entities have raised Tropical Storm Warnings.
As of the latest advisory from the NHC, the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 58.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west near 28 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts while the estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb or 29.80″.
According to the NHC, a westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. Ernesto is then forecast by the NHC to turn northward over the western Atlantic.
Due to threats from the storm, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Sint Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
The official National Hurricane Center forecast brings their forecast cone over Bermuda by Saturday afternoon. The middle of the cone is right over Bermuda, which suggests that the highest odds in the storm track show a direct hit; the National Hurricane Center official forecast has the maximum sustained winds at the closest point to Bermuda at 95 kts with gusts to 115 kts, which translates to 109 mph winds and gusts to 132 mph. However, some computer forecast guidance is suggesting Ernesto could be a category 2, 3, or 4 hurricane at that time.
Nevertheless, the NHC is being conservative for now, adding in their latest products, “It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.”
