Geomagnetic Storm Watch Issued (G3-STRONG); Another Amazing Show of the Aurora Possible

When the Sun blasts off radiation and material, it creates what’s called a coronal mass ejection or CME. Image: SOHO / ESA / NASA — When the Sun blasts off radiation and material, it creates what’s called a coronal mass ejection or CME. Image: SOHO
/ ESA / NASA

According to NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on Sunday into Monday, prompting the issuance of a Geomagnetic Storm Watch for Earth. Coronal Hole High Speed Streams (CH HSS) and a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) are responsible for this week’s solar disturbance.

In their latest forecast discussion, the SWPC said that the geomagnetic field is likely to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on May 7 and grow to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels on May 8. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels will return on May 9. “Combined influences from dual, positive-polarity coronal holes and Earth-directed CME activity observed on May 4-5 are the protagonists.”

For late Sunday into Monday, the SWPC is forecasting the Kp index to rise as high as 6.67, which would correlate to a strong geomagnetic storm.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field, frozen in flux, that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. CMEs travel outward from the Sun at various speeds, with some reaching the Earth as quickly as 15-18 hours and others requiring days to arrive. According to the SWPC, CMEs expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger ones can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet.

The GOES-16 weather satellite captured this image of the M-class flare that erupted off the Sun earlier today. Image: NOAA — The GOES-16 weather satellite is one tool space weather experts use to monitor the Sun’s activity. Image: NOAA

As the CME interacts with Earth and its magnetosphere, a variety of things could unfold based on the amount of energy hitting and the angle it impacts the Earth.

Geomagnetic storms are rated on a 1-5 scale by the SWPC, with 1 considered minor and 5 considered extreme. Geomagnetic storms can disrupt electronics and electrical systems, interfere with spacecraft and satellite communication, and also trigger brilliant displays of the aurora in the night sky.

In the case of the solar storm due to impact Earth in the coming hours and days, weak power grid fluctuations could occur, especially at northern latitudes. Minor impacts on satellite operations could also be possible. Aurora could also be visible more south than it usually is; in this case, it could extend as far south as Illinois and Oregon. Should the geomagnetic storm become stronger, aurora could be brighter and could appear even more south.

Chart showing NOAA Space Weather Scales for Geomagnetic Storms. Image: NOAA

The Sun is constantly churning material and magnetic fields which create an ever-changing landscape of features that last from milliseconds to days. NASA developed this infographic to illustrate a few of the most common features that can be seen on the Sun. Image: NASA/Mary Pat Hrybyk-Keith — The Sun is constantly churning material and magnetic fields which create an ever-changing landscape of features that last from milliseconds to days. NASA developed this infographic to illustrate a few of the most common features that can be seen on the Sun.
Image: NASA/Mary Pat Hrybyk-Keith

The Northern Lights could come to life in a brilliant way on Labor Day as a solar wind is forecast to impact Earth. — The Northern Lights could come to life in a brilliant way in places more south than usual during the Geomagnetic Storm.

NOAA forecasters analyze a variety of solar data from spacecraft to determine what impacts a geomagnetic storm could produce. Analyzing data from the DSCOVER and ACE satellite is one way forecasters can tell when the enhanced solar wind from a coronal hole is about to arrive at Earth. A few things they look for in the data to determine when the enhanced solar wind is arriving at Earth:

• Solar wind speed increases
• Temperature increases
• Particle density decreases
• Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength increases

While these solar events can help illuminate the sky with stunning aurora, they can also do considerable harm to electronics, electrical grids, and satellite and radio communications.

The 1859 incident, which occurred on September 1-2 in 1859, is also known as the “Carrington Event.” This event unfolded as powerful geomagnetic storm struck Earth during Solar Cycle 10. A CME hit the Earth and induced the largest geomagnetic storm on record. The storm was so intense it created extremely bright, vivid aurora throughout the planet: people in California thought the sun rose early, people in the northeastern U.S. could read a newspaper at night from the aurora’s bright light, and people as far south as Hawaii and south-central Mexico could see the aurora in the sky.

The event severely damaged the limited electrical and communication lines that existed at that time; telegraph systems around the world failed, with some telegraph operators reporting they received electric shocks.

Artist rendering of the Parker Solar Probe in space. Image: NASA — Artist rendering of the Parker Solar Probe in space, one of the assets scientists use to better understand solar activity and their impacts to Earth . Image: NASA

A June 2013 study by Lloyd’s of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in the U.S. showed that if the Carrington event happened in modern times, damages in the U.S. could exceed $2.6 trillion, roughly 15% of the nation’s annual GDP.

While typically known for their weather forecasts, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its National Weather Service (NWS) is also responsible for “space weather.” While there are private companies and other agencies that monitor and forecast space weather, the official source for alerts and warnings of the space environment is the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). The SWPC is located in Boulder, Colorado and is a service center of the NWS, which is part of NOAA. The Space Weather Prediction Center is also one of nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as they monitor current space weather activity 24/7, 365 days a year.