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Henri Could Become U.S. East Coast Hurricane Threat

by Weatherboy Team Meteorologist - August 18, 2021

A black & white image from the GOES-East Weather Satellite shows the remnants of Fred moving through the northeastern U.S. while Henri spins about over the Atlantic Ocean. Image: NOAA
A black & white image from the GOES-East Weather Satellite shows the remnants of Fred moving through the northeastern U.S. while Henri spins about over the Atlantic Ocean. Image: NOAA




Tropical Storm Henri is intensifying and could pose a threat to the U.S. East Coast over time as a hurricane. Due to the threat of a possible east coast landfall, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled to capture additional data that will help the computer forecast models handle the evolving steering pattern that Henri is in.

Even if Henri doesn’t strike the east coast, swells from it could reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

This map issued by the National Hurricane Center shows where the greatest threat of tropical storm force winds are over the next 5 days. These maps will be adjusted as new track data arrives. Image: NHC
This map issued by the National Hurricane Center shows where the greatest threat of tropical storm force winds are over the next 5 days. These maps will be adjusted as new track data arrives. Image: NHC

Computer forecast model data continues to shift the future track of Henri closer and closer to the coast, with some guidance suggesting a landfalling hurricane on Long Island. Additional shifts could bring the storm closer to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey; it is also possible that other shifts may push it into the Canadian Maritimes or more east. It is still too soon to say with certainty where this storm will go at this time.



The latest track for Henri shows a shift closer to the U.S. East Coast, and additional adjustments will likely be necessary as new weather data arrives at the National Hurricane Center. Image: NHC
The latest track for Henri shows a shift closer to the U.S. East Coast, and additional adjustments will likely be necessary as new weather data arrives at the National Hurricane Center. Image: NHC

 

Models suggest many different intensity scenarios for Henri with time. Image: tropicaltidbits.com
Models suggest many different intensity scenarios for Henri with time. Image: tropicaltidbits.com

While large questions loom over the future track of Henri, the same is true of its intensity forecast. The National Hurricane Center expects Henri to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by this weekend. However, there are five major forecast models that are suggesting Henri will become a 2 or greater category, with one suggesting it growing to a category 4 hurricane by the weekend. Category 4 is the second-highest hurricane classification category on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale, and storms that are of this intensity maintain maximum sustained winds of  130–156 mph.

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