A significant severe weather outbreak is likely today. The latest Convective Outlook issued by the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center says there’s an enhanced threat of severe thunderstorms from Texas to Kentucky, with a broader elevated risk area of severe weather stretching from Oklahoma to Vermont. Major cities impacted by today’s severe weather threat include Houston and Dallas, Texas, Shreveport, Louisiana, Little Rock, Arkansas, Memphis, Tennessee, Louisville, Kentucky, and Columbus, Ohio.
“Widespread strong thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening,” cautions the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). They added, “This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.”
A residual mesocyclone complex, with diminished intensity since early on the overnight, persists at daybreak along the Red River and Texas/Oklahoma border region east into the Mid-South largely paralleling I-40. According to the SPC, a relatively isolated severe potential will initially exist with these storms this morning. An intensification of related and downstream storms is expected by midday, potentially spanning parts of Arkansas into western/Middle Tennessee, western Kentucky, and northern Alabama. Additional severe storm development will be possible this afternoon northeastward into the middle Ohio Valley and toward the Cumberland Plateau, as increasing low-level/deep-layer southwesterly winds overlie a moderately unstable boundary layer. Multiple organizing storm clusters can be expected regionally this afternoon into evening.
Farther southwest across central/eastern Texas, while considerable drying and stabilization is still apparent in observational data after last evening’s mesoscale convective complex, the air mass should steadily recover with moistening andrelatively aggressive destabilization into peak heating. Initial thunderstorm development will be accompanied by the potential for large hail, with supercells capable of very large hail possible especially with west-southwestward extent into the Edwards Plateau and toward the Rio Grande. Damaging wind potential will also increase as convection organizes and spreads southeastward into this evening across central/southeast Texas, and possibly Deep South Texas tonight.
