Hurricane Experts Increase Atlantic Forecast for 2020

The GOES-East weather satellite shows a clearly defined eye in one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history. Image: NOAA — The GOES-East weather satellite shows a clearly defined eye in one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history during last year’s hurricane season, Hurricane Dorian. 2020 could see similar powerful storms this year. Image: NOAA

Experts at Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project have updated their seasonal outlook for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season to include even more storms than before. The new forecast boosts the expected number of total named storms to 20, up from 16 first seasonal outlook released in April and 19 in the last update issued in June.

The outlook endeavor at CSU is led by Research Scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach. He received his Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from CSU in 2007. Klotzbach has been employed in the Department of Atmospheric Science for the past nineteen years and was co-author on the Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts with Dr. William Gray through 2005. He became first author on the seasonal hurricane forecasts in 2006. Klotzbach developed the two-week forecasts currently being issued during the peak months of the hurricane season between August-October. He has published over two dozen articles in peer-reviewed journals such as Journal of Climate and Weather and Forecasting.

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Today's update increases the number of storms expected in the Atlantic hurricane basin this season. Image: Department of Atmospheric Science — Today’s update increases the number of storms expected in the Atlantic hurricane basin this season. Image: Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University

According to the update issued today, the tropical meteorology experts with CSU expect that the 2020 Atlantic Season will have activity above the 1981-2010 average. Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard have already formed in the Atlantic as of July 6th. Based on additional analysis, the CSU experts estimate that 2020 will have an additional 9 hurricanes (full season average is 6.4), 15 named storms (average is 12.1), 75.50 named storm days (average is 59.4), 40 hurricane days (average is 24.2), 4 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.7) and 9 major hurricane days (average is 6.2). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 135 percent of the long-period average. They also expect the Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2020 to be approximately 150 percent of their long-term averages.

The full updated report can be viewed here: https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-07.pdf.

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season continues through November 30, 2020.