Experts at Colorado State University have updated their 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook on the day before the ’18 season officially kicks off. Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project located in the Department of Atmospheric Science, updated their outlook issued earlier this spring at the 2018 Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre Island, Texas. While the initial forecast projected an above-normal hurricane season, the revised outlook is calling for a normal amount of hurricanes and major hurricanes in the season. The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins June 1 and runs through to the end of November.
The effort at CSU is led by Research Scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach. He received his Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from CSU in 2007. Klotzbach has been employed in the Department of Atmospheric Science for the past seventeen years and was co-author on the Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts with Dr. William Gray through 2005. He became first author on the seasonal hurricane forecasts in 2006. Klotzbach developed the two-week forecasts currently being issued during the peak months of the hurricane season between August-October. He has published over two dozen articles in peer-reviewed journals such as Journal of Climate and Weather and Forecasting.
“CSU is reducing its forecast slightly and is now calling for a near-average season with 14 named storms (including Alberto), 6 hurricanes and 2 major (Category 3-5) hurricanes,” Dr. Klotzbach told us. “The primary reason for the reduction is due to anomalous cooling in the tropical Atlantic. The tropical Atlantic is now much colder than normal, meaning less fuel for developing tropical cyclones. However, it is important to remember that regardless of any seasonal forecast, it just takes one hurricane landfall near you to make it a very active season.”
The full PDF of the updated outlook is available here: https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/05/2018-06.pdf
Weatherboy is one sponsor of this CSU research effort.